51视频

主题：Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce

主讲人：俞志宏

地点：旭日楼418

时间：2026年6月25日（周四）下午3:30

报告简介：

【Abstract】The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the USde minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the e-commerce trade using product-level tariff changes from the2018–2019 US–China trade war. We examine whether tariff increases on traditional imports led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 0.283% in panel regressions, and by 0.719% in long-difference specifications. These effects imply a 4.0%–10.1% increase in e-commerce imports—substantial, yet modest compared to the 152% overall growth from 2017 to 2019. The response is stronger in densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race. Our findings show that tariff avoidance under the de minimis rule contributed only modestly to e-commerce growth, but other forces, such as improved platform marketing, played a larger role.

主讲人简介：俞志宏，英国诺丁汉大学经济51视频 副教授、The World Economy副主编。主要研究领域为国际贸易、国际投资、中国经济等，成果发表于Review of Economics and Statistics， Journal of International Economics，European Economic Review，Economic Theory等经济学顶级期刊，并担任Quarterly Journal of Economics等期刊匿名审稿人。